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Anatoly Vorobey

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о кризисе (англ.) [янв. 5, 2009|11:31 am]
Anatoly Vorobey
Длинная, подробная статья о кто-виноват-и-что-делать в двух частях:

1. The End of the Financial World as We Know It
2. How to Repair a Broken Financial World

[User Picture]From: orleanz
2009-01-05 10:56 am
Основная идея статьи (рукотворная природа кризиса) уже не раз высказывалась, в том числе Джорджем Соросом в http://www.nybooks.com

Но ведь основная интрига не в этом. Основная интрига в том, в какой момент политики решат, что желание сохранить связи с лоббистами от бизнеса и банков - уравновешено опасностью жестокого социального бунта. Пока это критическая точка еще не достигнута, пока политики еще считают, что можно по прежнему слушаться лоббистов и опускать средний класс.
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[User Picture]From: feutche
2009-01-05 11:07 am
я пока не вчитывался, но, кажется, очередное и типичное фуфло
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[User Picture]From: akibar
2009-01-05 11:41 am
фуфло полное. подробно описан механизм взаимодействия бизнеса и органов контроля за ними. Причем здесь кризис, понять невозможно.
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[User Picture]From: cousin_it
2009-01-05 12:36 pm
i don't think this is right.

here's two quotes that i think are closer to the truth.

Money is in itself most admirable. It is essential. It is not intrinsically evil. It is one of the most useful
devices in social life. And when it does what it was intended to do, it is all help and no hindrance. But money should always be money. A foot is always twelve inches, but when is a dollar a dollar? If ton weights changed in the coal yard, and peck measures changed in the grocery, and yard sticks were to-day 42 inches and to-morrow 33 inches (by some occult process called "exchange") the people would mighty soon remedy that. When a dollar is not always a dollar, when the 100-cent dollar becomes the 65-cent dollar, and then the 50-cent dollar, and then the 47-cent dollar, as the good old American gold and silver dollars did, what is the use of yelling about "cheap money," "depreciated money"? A dollar that stays 100 cents is as necessary as a pound that stays 16 ounces and a yard that stays 36 inches.

-- Henry Ford, "My Life and Work"

When you make a bank deposit, you have acquired not one but two securities. One is a promise from FooBank to pay you on demand. The other is a promise from USG to pay you if FooBank doesn't. Because the promise is denominated in dollars, USG can print dollars, and USG has no reason to welsh on this promise, the dollar on deposit is truly worth $1... This leaves FooBank free to use the depositors' money to buy 30-year mortgages, while assuring them that they can redeem at any time... For that matter, Treasury obligations are risk-free for exactly the same reason. This is how the US can run a $10 trillion risk-free debt in a world with only 825 billion actual dollars... And it's also utterly ridiculous. Basically, it means that mortgages are cheap because Uncle Sam is printing money and lending it... If you believe in maturity transformation, you believe it's good public policy for the government to print money and lend it. This raises the question of why, if it's good for Uncle Sam to engage in this practice, it's not good for everyone.

-- Mencius (much wordiness snipped)
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